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5.17 $ETH Evening Market Just scanned through the BTC market again; tonight's setup is really not complicated. It's just a fight at key levels, with both bulls and bears hesitant, waiting for confirmation. We shouldn't rush ahead either; let's wait for the big players to show their cards first. Right now, the hurdle around 2200 is really tough. If it can hold with volume above this level, the short-term structure changes—that's a real breakout. If it reaches 2230 and holds steady, the downtrend officially ends, and only then can we look towards 2270. Even if it pulls back then, it will likely just touch around 2200 for consolidation before moving up again. Just hold on. But if it can't hold and falls back into this consolidation range, that's the favorite trick of the big players—a "high hang restoration," a fake breakout to trap traders. Once it falls back, it will likely retest the previous low at 2160. This level is the 1:1 target for this correction wave. The first time it hits, there might be a reflex reaction, but don't rush to buy. If the order book looks weak during the pullback, it probably won't hold and will break down further, targeting 1.618. So after a fake breakout, don't randomly catch falling knives—remember this. What really worries me a bit is the daily chart. The lower boundary of the box at 2175 on the daily level is the lifeline. It hasn't broken yet, so I say BTC's daily chart hasn't truly started to fall. But if tomorrow's daily close can't recover and breaks below 2175, the situation changes. The daily-level correction officially opens, and the range from 2173 down to 1935 is all fair game. The space is quite scary, and at that point, any bullish setup is dead. So tomorrow's daily close must push back above this level. If it can't, mid-term traders need to be mentally prepared. I've also considered a nasty move: first a volume spike fake breakout above 2200 to lure longs, then a sharp reversal with a wick breaking below 2160. This kind of hunting is brutal and targets overconfident traders. So don't rush in just because of a bullish candle; watch the volume and the candle body, wait for confirmation. · Volume breakout above 2197, hold above, then chase longs on the right side. Target 2230-2270 first, stop loss just below the low of the breakout candle. · Volume breakdown below 2173, chase shorts on the right side. Target 2122-2077, stop loss just above the high of the breakdown candle. · If it oscillates between these two lines with no volume or strength, don't move; watch the big players perform. No need to make money on this. In short, tonight bulls and bears will settle the score here. Whether 2197-2200 holds determines if we get to feast tonight; whether 2175 on the daily holds tomorrow decides life or death for the near future. Stay sharp. Without stop losses, this kind of market can bury you in minutes. $ETH $BTC $SOL

5.17 $BTC Evening Market Update BTC is stuck in a narrow range between 78,000 and 78,300, moving back and forth within this 500-600 dollar space, making my eyelids twitch. This isn’t just consolidation; it’s a test of endurance, seeing who cracks first. Look at the current movement—doesn’t it look like it’s quietly forming a W bottom around 78,200? The neckline is at 78,339. But don’t get ahead of yourself now; as long as it hasn’t firmly broken above that line, this W is just a drawing, something to watch but not to bet on prematurely. It’s moving sideways, basically cornering both bulls and bears, waiting to see who blinks first. From 83,000 down to around 78,000, it’s dropped nearly 5,000 dollars. Even a bear needs to catch its breath, right? So a bounce here, up to around 79,500, seems reasonable to me. After that, if it wants to drop again, that’s another story, but at least the rhythm will be right. The real worry is if it doesn’t even give this small rebound and just crashes straight down—that likely means there’s some hidden risk we don’t know about. If that happens, don’t complain; the market is always right, just follow along. The downtrend line from the high has already been broken in the first step; now we’re waiting for a pullback that doesn’t break the previous low. If it can stabilize around here and then muster a strong bullish candle to push higher and make a new high, then going long tonight will be comfortable. Don’t memorize the sequence mechanically; the key is the market showing that “no break” and “new high.” Keep your mind clear and focus on these two moves: Upward, if it breaks through 78,238 with volume and doesn’t fall back, then tonight you can join in and look towards 79,521 to 80,369. If it can’t break through, it’s just playing games—sit back and watch. Downward, if a strong volume spike pierces 77,737 and then the price fails to recover, run quickly without hesitation; the next targets could be 76,027 or even 74,934. Finally, remember this level: if the solid support at 78,000 breaks, don’t panic or ask around if it’s time to bottom-fish. Just focus on the 74,222 to 75,000 range. This was the launch point of the previous big rally and the dog whales’ stronghold. When it gets here, I don’t care how panicked others are—close your eyes and scoop up some spot positions. I can’t guarantee an immediate return to 80,000, but there will definitely be a juicy rebound here. If you’re wrong, admit it, because the cost of getting buried here is much less than catching falling knives halfway up the mountain. If you lose, just accept it and don’t hold on stubbornly. Control your hands; when the signal comes, don’t hesitate. $BTC $ETH $SOL

One-day loss of 1 trillion! Samsung strike turmoil erupts, semiconductor industry faces a major crisis Honestly, recently everyone in the circle has been quietly watching the situation at Samsung, no one dares to be careless 🔥 After all, if this giant has even a slight disturbance, the entire semiconductor chain will shake, and related market sectors are easily affected. #韩国三星劳资谈判破裂 South Korean senior officials are now extremely anxious, holding overnight meetings to coordinate all parties, fearing the situation might spiral out of control. The South Korean Prime Minister bluntly stated that if Samsung's semiconductor factories stop work for one day, the direct loss would be 1 trillion Korean won, which converts to nearly 668 million USD. This is just the visible loss; the hidden troubles are even more troublesome. Sincerely advise everyone to remember this point: Once the production line stops, it cannot immediately return to normal operation upon restarting. It will take at least several months to smooth out production capacity afterward. If a large amount of raw materials become unusable and are scrapped during the shutdown, the total loss could reach 100 trillion Korean won, a scale no one can bear. South Korea still holds a last-resort card for emergencies. If it is confirmed that the strike affects people's livelihood and the overall economy, relevant departments can directly issue an emergency order to suspend all strike actions for thirty days. The government will fully mediate the dispute, but this measure is rarely used under normal circumstances. The current situation has reached a critical point, and everyone in the industry is waiting for the outcome. According to actual news from Yonhap News Agency, Samsung labor and management agreed to sit down again for talks at 10 a.m. on the 18th. On the other hand, the labor side is very determined, having already set the 21st to start the strike, a collective work stoppage plan lasting eighteen days, making their stance very clear. Whether the conflict can be resolved through negotiation will directly determine the direction of this turmoil. Earlier, both sides had already endured a long night of tug-of-war negotiations, from the 11th until the early morning of the 13th, with a complete deadlock. The core conflict is the disagreement over the performance bonus distribution standards. They simply could not reach an agreement and ended up parting on bad terms. Later, someone tried to mediate and restart talks but was directly rejected by the other side. The two sides remained deadlocked for a full five days. Now the stalemate has finally shown signs of easing, with many key figures personally stepping in to mediate. Samsung's responsible person ended their trip abroad and urgently returned to the country, publicly urging internal staff to calm down and return to the negotiation table for proper communication. They hope everyone will work together to stabilize the situation and maintain the current development status. The head of South Korea's labor department has also been running back and forth, interviewing both management and labor sides, clearly conveying the official stance, and trying to mediate and coordinate. Those of us in this industry know well that the semiconductor sector is highly interconnected. Samsung holds core production capacity; once caught in a long-term shutdown, the physical supply rhythm is disrupted, industry market fluctuations occur, and sooner or later this will transmit to the investment market. The upcoming negotiation results and whether the strike proceeds as scheduled are the most important market signals to watch in the near term. $BTC $ETH $SOL

Harvard ran away, but Middle Eastern tycoons are still buying: This is quite interesting In the early morning, I flipped through the 13F filings and saw two names placed together, which was quite striking. #InstitutionalPositionDivergence: Harvard liquidates ETH, Abu Dhabi increases BTC On one side is Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund, Mubadala, which added over $100 million more to its Bitcoin ETF. On the other side is Harvard University's endowment fund—the money managed by some of the smartest people in the world—which completely liquidated over $800 million worth of Ethereum ETFs in one quarter. This is not just a reduction; it's a full exit. They didn't even give a heads-up. I just wonder, what exactly did these people see? The Middle Eastern tycoons' calculation is actually quite straightforward Look at Mubadala's moves: since their first Bitcoin ETF purchase in Q4 last year, they've only been buying for five consecutive quarters without selling. And even when Bitcoin dropped more than 25% in Q1 this year, would you dare to add more? They kept buying. In their eyes, Bitcoin is a reserve asset of the digital world. It's not a stock, not a tech startup; it's more like gold, something to hold as ballast. Plus, with rapid legislative progress in the U.S. this year, the White House is about to release audit results on Bitcoin reserves, and Texas has already confirmed plans to buy Bitcoin as a reserve. From another perspective, for a sovereign fund managing over $300 billion, what it buys is sometimes more important than how much it buys. It's a signal: this thing, we think, is now respectable. Harvard's distrust of Ethereum has its pain points Harvard's move was harshest not in reducing Bitcoin ETFs (which they also cut by 43%), but in completely liquidating their Ethereum ETFs. They just established the position last quarter and then exited immediately, like tasting spoiled food and throwing away the chopsticks. It's not that Harvard is stupid; it's that Ethereum's recent data is really discouraging. The Fusaka upgrade was supposed to make the network faster and cheaper, but gas fees plummeted by 90%, becoming almost free. You'd expect on-chain activity to boom, right? Instead, what flooded in were address poisoning attacks—95% of new wallets are fake, and 22% of transactions are attack-related. Look at those active address numbers; it seems like a bull market, but when you dig deeper, it's all fake activity. This is very frustrating. What do institutions fear most? They fear data that doesn't hold up under scrutiny. If the data isn't trustworthy, how can anyone do fundamental analysis? Moreover, Ethereum's inflation rate is now positive; the "ultrasound money" narrative no longer holds. Staking yields are 2.8%, lower than some stablecoin yields, so what's the appeal of holding it? Just because it sounds good? Interestingly, institutions haven't all fled. Dartmouth College is quite unconventional—they hold both Bitcoin and Ethereum and even bought some Solana staking ETFs. It's not that the crypto market is failing; it's that everyone is ranking assets. Bitcoin is increasingly like digital gold, held as reserves by sovereign nations. Ethereum is like a tech company still searching for a profitable business model—good story, but no convincing results yet. And Solana and the like are being treated as higher-risk growth stocks. The market is shifting from "listening to stories" to "reading financial reports." Smart money like Harvard's leaves when the scent is off, while slow money like Abu Dhabi's is playing the long game, looking at the table ten years from now. Finally, a joke: Harvard bought Ethereum just last quarter and liquidated it this quarter. What does that mean? Maybe some professors got buried chasing worthless tokens on-chain. $BTC $ETH $SOL

Lately, I've been obsessing over one thing: SpaceX's IPO hasn't officially appeared yet, but those on-chain folks are definitely sharpening their knives. Last time Cerebras was front-run on-chain for pricing, I thought it was just a novelty. Now with a giant like SpaceX, I suddenly realize—some rules might really be changing. #SpaceX首轮IPO倒计时：链上定价权争夺再启 Front-running happens once, it happens twice. Honestly, I used to think on-chain pricing was more of a gimmick until Cerebras actually put real money on the line with their price. Now looking at SpaceX, the situation can only be more extreme. Its shares have long been hard currency in the private secondary market; firms like BlackRock and a16z are scrambling to get in through employee stock transfers. The information gap is definitely not a solid wall. As long as on-chain platforms create synthetic assets or pre-market contracts, a flood of liquidity will pour in. This is no longer about whether it can happen, but who moves first to claim the spot. A name like SpaceX front-run once and on-chain platforms can brag about it for years. Digging deeper, the scales of institutions and the auction gavel of retail investors are fundamentally different price mechanisms. BlackRock is probably buying old shares at about $185 per share, valuing the company at $350 billion. That’s their calculated price—like an old market vendor using weights on a scale: accurate but won’t pay a penny more for any story. The price set by on-chain retail is more like the paddles raised at an auction, not "how much it’s worth," but "how crazy everyone thinks it can get." Mars colonization, Starlink, political narratives—each story can push the premium higher. My own lesson: I once chased pre-market contracts following the hype, prices looked unreal, but when the real listing happened, institutional anchors were the gravity center and emotional premiums vanished instantly. So now I watch two prices: the institutional price lets me sleep at night, the on-chain price shows how greedy the market currently is—both must be watched, but mixing them up can cause trouble. The impact on us ordinary people needs deeper thought. When I first heard about trading SpaceX early, my initial reaction was excitement: finally no need to fight the crowd on IPO day. But thinking it over, I got chills. IPOs used to be like lining up for limited edition sneakers—maybe you wouldn’t get them, but at least the sale time and price were clear. Now with on-chain front-running, it’s like tossing those sneakers into a huge secondhand crowd before the official sale, full of all kinds of people: true connoisseurs, pure speculators, and those deliberately throwing smoke screens. If you rush in with spare cash hoping to make a quick buck, you might find yourself trapped even by the shoelaces. More brutally, this early trading superficially puts retail and institutions on the same starting line, but actually tears open the wounds of information and tool asymmetry. Institutions have channels to know aerospace contract details and models to calculate cash flow; many of us can only scroll Twitter for clues. This "equal footing" without sufficient information protection is actually quite dangerous. Of course, I’m not that pessimistic, just increasingly clear on one thing: the rhythm of big IPOs has completely changed. The price on the official listing day is no longer the starting point but possibly the final settlement of months of on-chain speculation. There’s no steady happiness anymore; either adapt early to these game rules or honestly admit you don’t have the skill for short-term trading—watching the show is also a strategy. This SpaceX ride will definitely be lively, but I’m more curious to see when the on-chain price really emerges and diverges hugely from the investment banks’ offering price, whether those suited underwriters can still hold their ground. This tug-of-war over pricing power might be even more exciting than the IPO itself. What do you think? Are you planning to bet early on-chain or wait for the dust to settle? My mindset is: small bets for fun are fine, but big stakes require careful thought about whether losing that money would hurt. $SPACEX $BTC $ETH

4.6% US Treasury yields remain high and sideways! Rate cuts are completely off the table, Fed leadership change reshapes the overall crypto market landscape The vast majority of retail investors are still focused on short-term price fluctuations, completely ignoring this top-level power transition at the Federal Reserve. #沃什接掌Fed：权力交接现分歧 This internal factional split is the core variable that will determine the major trend of the crypto market in the coming months, far more important than daily spikes, pullbacks, and short-term volatility. The Fed has historically maintained a highly unified policy stance externally, with internal disagreements rarely made public. But this time, the situation is completely different. Two Fed governors nominated by Trump have openly taken sides against Powell continuing his tenure. This high-level public confrontation directly breaks the Fed’s years of policy stability; the coherence of monetary policy has been thoroughly disrupted. Market capital relies most on stable expectations. Once internal Fed divisions emerge, capital will remain cautious and watchful, making it difficult for the market to sustain a persistent one-sided trend. The fundamental situation has completely locked down short-term bullish potential. US Treasury yields firmly stand above 4.6%, and the market has entirely abandoned any expectations of rate cuts within the year. The so-called easing and liquidity injection scenario has completely fallen through at this stage; a highly tight market environment will continue to suppress crypto market performance. The entire capital market’s focus is now concentrated on the June FOMC meeting. This is the first key meeting after Waller officially takes over the Fed, and the market’s first full reception of his policy style, inflation stance, and regulatory tendencies. All signals released at this meeting will directly set the tone for the macro trajectory of the crypto space for the entire upcoming quarter. Comparing the styles of the new and former Fed leaders, the market logic is very clear. During Powell’s tenure, he maintained a tough and conservative stance toward the crypto industry. He consistently classified crypto assets as purely speculative products, enforced strict regulatory measures, and showed very low tolerance for industry innovation. Waller’s governing style, however, forms a stark contrast to Powell’s. He openly recognizes Bitcoin’s macro-financial attributes and views it as an important indicator for monitoring inflation. He opposes central bank digital currencies, supports compliant development of private stablecoins, and personally holds crypto assets. He is the Fed’s core leader with the deepest understanding and highest tolerance of the crypto industry to date. But the market cannot blindly be optimistic based solely on personal preferences. All Fed decisions fundamentally serve the overall economic regulation of the United States. Personal preferences for the crypto market will not take precedence over the broader direction of monetary tightening and inflation control. The ultimate market direction still depends on the pace of balance sheet reduction, inflation statements, and regulatory tone at the June meeting. The factional split caused by the Fed’s current power transition has become the biggest macro uncertainty. This structural shift is quietly reshaping the medium- to long-term trajectory of the entire crypto market. I will continue to follow up on pre-signals before the June FOMC meeting, promptly analyzing policy trends and market opportunities. If useful, please like and save to not miss the key rhythm of this macro upheaval. $BTC $ETH $SOL

5.17 $BTC $ETH Chatting about the market at noon, both BTC and ETH are testing traders' patience For BTC, the 78000 level looks like it’s been broken, but it’s hard to say if it’s a real break or a fake one. Don’t rush to conclusions; on the hourly chart, we need to see three solid bearish candles closing below 78000 to confirm losing the position. Otherwise, it might just be a pump-and-dump trick by whales. If it truly breaks down, the hourly bullish momentum will basically stop, and it will likely continue to test lower levels. We might see a small double bottom form, but the prerequisite is that it must reclaim 78148. If it can’t hold above that and continues to drift down, it’s a false double bottom—don’t be fooled. At this point, both bulls and bears are struggling; I don’t want to force trades. I’ll wait for the market to show its direction. If BTC keeps oscillating in this range, it’s just consolidation after a drop, waiting to choose a direction. If the lower boundary of the range breaks, be cautious of further downside, with a target around 76130. Want to stop the decline? It needs to climb back above 78000 first. For a reversal, it must break above 79538 with volume; otherwise, it will keep grinding. A volume-backed break above 78313 is a signal to chase longs on the right side, targeting the 79540-80685 zone. A volume-backed break below 77730 with a failed rebound is a signal to chase shorts on the right side, targeting 76863-75237. Otherwise, I’d rather watch. BTC key levels: Resistance above: 78313, 79540, 80685 Support below: 77665, 76233, 75226 ETH is even weaker, steadily drifting down and stuck in a converging range. If it breaks below the previous low at 2160, it will likely drop straight to 2111. Conversely, if it breaks out of this convergence and climbs back above 2200, this downtrend can be considered a breather and may signal a trend reversal. A break above 2181 is a signal to chase longs on the right side, targeting 2215-2233. If it pulls back to 2155 and holds, you can lightly go long, but if it breaks below 2118, exit immediately—don’t hold the position. For shorts, if it can’t break above around 2233, you can try shorting; if it breaks 2269, exit. I have a long at 2088 on the left side; if it breaks below 2057, I’ll cut losses without hesitation. ETH key levels: Resistance above: 2181, 2215, 2233 Support below: 2168, 2121, 2085 In summary, this is garbage time—don’t keep jumping back and forth in the middle range; the more you trade, the easier it is to make mistakes. Wait for clear signals before acting; better to miss out than to make wrong moves. Watch the market closely this afternoon and act if there are changes. $BTC $ETH $SOL