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Bitcoin's exchange reserves are at their lowest level in nearly five years The exchange reserves data is a very good indicator of investors' risk appetite. When investors collectively prepare to sell, the $BTC reserves on exchanges usually increase. It is clearly visible that whether in 2021 or 2024, when Bitcoin prices rise sharply, more BTC starts to concentrate on exchanges as investors prepare to find the best opportunity to exit. At this time, most investors still treat Bitcoin primarily as a financial investment. Sell when the price is high, buy the dip when the price is low. However, starting from July 2024, regardless of whether Bitcoin's price rises or falls, investors are generally withdrawing BTC from exchanges. This also indicates that more investors are losing interest in short-term selling and are increasingly optimistic about $BTC's long-term prospects. Even now, there hasn't been a large accumulation. It should be noted that those who really want to sell usually keep their coins on exchanges, while withdrawals from exchanges to the blockchain are often by those who do not intend to sell in the short term. It can be said that the less Bitcoin held on exchanges, the stronger the confidence of long-term investors. #Bitget VIP is here! Crypto, US stocks, CFDs, global opportunities all in one place

I have to say, in the past six months, USD1's financial products have indeed been low-risk and high-yield, which is also a smart move in USD1's promotion. I remember seeing data a few days ago that USD1's margin ratio in Binance contracts has already become the highest. Such a strong airdrop is indeed rare.

Bitcoin can't break through $82,000 and will drop to $40,000?? Recently, many friends have privately messaged me asking if $BTC will fall all the way down to $40,000 after failing to break through $82,000. First of all, from my personal understanding, the recent rise from $60,000 to $80,000 was mainly due to the easing of geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. Some might ask, wasn’t the strong buying power around $60,000 the reason, because investors saw it as a great bottom-fishing point? This explanation isn’t quite accurate. From the price trend, it’s clear that when Bitcoin first dropped to around $60,000 in early February, investors were selling, and more BTC was rushing into exchanges, indicating that some holders were pessimistic due to the US-Iran conflict. Only about a month later, in early March, when news started circulating that the US and Iran might reconcile, funds gradually began to buy in. That’s why I said before that Bitcoin at $60,000 and at $80,000 are essentially the same; the rise wasn’t due to BTC itself. So, will it now drop to $40,000? Looking at current position data, investors still maintain decent buying power around $80,000. It does seem somewhat less than at the peak, but more BTC is still leaving exchanges, and there’s no large accumulation yet. In other words, at least for now, I see investors still buying rather than selling heavily. I’ve also said many times that Bitcoin’s price movements are more related to US macroeconomic, political, and economic factors, which affect the US, especially tech stocks, and thus impact $BTC. If Bitcoin falls to $40,000, it would either be because the US stock market has experienced a significant pullback or because Bitcoin itself faces a crisis. The former is possible—for example, if the US-Iran war reignites, or Iran uses nuclear weapons, or the US enters a recession, all of which could cause major drops in US stocks and Bitcoin. The latter is much less likely. But at least I think this has no direct relation to whether Bitcoin can break through $82,000. Overall, I personally don’t believe in the idea that if it doesn’t reach price X, it will definitely go to price Y. Significant price fluctuations will come from changes in US or global macroeconomic, political, or economic conditions. #Bitget VIP is here! Crypto, US stocks, CFDs, global opportunities all in one place

Vance stated that the US is making progress in negotiations with Iran US Vice President JD Vance said that after Trump rejected Tehran's latest proposal as unacceptable, he believes that negotiations with Iran are making progress. "I think we are making progress. The fundamental question is whether we have made enough progress to meet the president's red line?" Vance told reporters at the White House. "And that red line is very simple. He needs to be confident that we have taken several safeguards to ensure that Iran will never have nuclear weapons."

As expected, $ETH still receives much less favorable treatment compared to $BTC. Although Bitcoin also experienced net outflows, the amount was not significant. However, for ETH, BlackRock investors' net outflow is nearly 1.5% of the total, which basically equals most of May's inflows. If we include last Friday's outflow, all the inflows for May have been completely withdrawn. This also reflects, from one perspective, the traditional investors' indifference towards cryptocurrencies. They tend to chase gains and cut losses, believing they can speculate on crypto's rise when the US stock market is up. BTC's advantage lies in having more long-term holders who are believers, whereas ETH is more of a pure financial investment, with investors exiting immediately when conditions worsen. #Bitget means VIP treatment! Crypto, US stocks, CFDs—global opportunities all in one place

Yesterday, I just finished looking at the CPI data, and today the PPI data has come out. Of course, compared to the much more closely watched CPI, the PPI receives much less attention. But it's important to know that in the Fed's most important PCE data, both CPI and PPI are key leading indicators. Today's PPI data also blew past expectations: the previous value was 4.3%, the market forecast was 4.9%, and the released data is 6%. The core PPI showed the same trend. If CPI is the inflation indicator that the market looks at first, then PPI is the indicator of production costs and some service prices, while PCE is the core indicator the Fed uses for policy decisions. So after reviewing the CPI, looking at the PPI gives a rough idea of the monthly PCE trend. And for the Fed right now, the PCE is one of the main references for deciding whether to cut interest rates or not.

I think the criticism itself is not because the model is flawed, but because it insists on hanging a sheep's head while selling dog meat. The pre-IPO market itself is very chaotic, and the product structure is entirely based on compliance. Today, I also saw the joint statement from Anthropic and OpenAI, stating that any stock transfer without board approval is invalid, including SPVs, tokens, forward contracts, etc. Although the crypto world doesn't emphasize these, if it clearly tells users that there isn't sufficient compliance, users can be responsible for their own actions. But if it is not compliant yet insists on claiming compliance and uses compliant methods to guide users to purchase, then it is essentially deceiving users. I have always felt that the crypto world is a place that doesn't pay much attention to rules, and that's fine. But in a place that doesn't emphasize rules, insisting on claiming to comply with rules when in fact it does not is a bit rogue.

I have previously discussed the security issues of Pre-IPO with everyone, and also explained the relationship between SPV and SPV mirrors to friends. Especially, this kind of tokenized Pre-IPO is essentially a tool based on price tracking; it cannot be settled nor does it grant any rights, and liquidity is fragmented. However, I actually think that the so-called "all invalid" stance itself doesn't hold much meaning in the crypto space, because tokenization itself is inherently "invalid."

Bitcoin high-net-worth investors are slowly decreasing, but the amount of Bitcoin held by high-net-worth investors is slowly increasing Earlier, we saw that long-term holders have reached a new all-time high, and from the data on Bitcoin holding distribution, it is clear that the holdings of high-net-worth investors with more than 10 $BTC are continuously rising. Moreover, this trend is not just for the past year; over a longer period, the holdings of high-net-worth investors have been gradually increasing. However, looking at another set of data on the number of addresses holding more than 10 Bitcoin, this number is indeed showing a slow downward trend. Although the decrease is not significant and there is no sustained decline, it is still decreasing. This indicates that some high-net-worth investors are exiting the market, but the vast majority of high-net-worth investors remain active, and those who stay continue to buy Bitcoin. In the future, the trend of a small number of investors holding a large amount of Bitcoin cannot be ruled out. Additionally, even though the recent price of $BTC has not maintained its upward momentum, both high-net-worth investors holding more than 10 Bitcoin and smaller investors holding less than 10 Bitcoin continue to maintain a buying trend. For investors, $80,000 is not a threshold.

After 310 days, long-term holders' Bitcoin holdings have reached a new all-time high The last all-time high was on July 7, 2025, when Bitcoin's price was around $108,000. After that, the holdings of long-term holders began to decline, reaching a low of 14,441,390 BTC, which coincided with Bitcoin's price dropping to around $60,000. Since then, long-term Bitcoin holdings have continued to rise, seemingly without a direct correlation to price. When BTC price rises, this data rises; when BTC price falls, this data also rises. Currently, long-term held BTC has reached 14,847,218. This indicates: 1. Some long-term investors believe $60,000 was an excellent bottom-buying opportunity, and even at $80,000 they continued buying. 2. Even investors holding BTC at prices above $100,000 have selling targets well above $120,000, and more investors have long-term expectations for $BTC's value. 3. As long-term Bitcoin holdings increase, the circulating BTC in the market decreases. Short-term holders are currently the main drivers of price changes; when short-term holders reduce their positions, the downward pressure on price lessens. 4. Low prices not only make it harder for long-term holders to release their Bitcoin but also increase their desire to accumulate more. 5. Historical data shows that long-term Bitcoin investors have been steadily increasing, with more holders viewing $BTC as a "rare asset" rather than a "commodity." Of course, this does not mean Bitcoin's price won't decline, but it represents that more holders have higher and more tolerant price expectations. Combined with other data, it shows that more $BTC is flowing into the hands of financially strong individuals who are unlikely to sell their assets easily. Especially for high-net-worth investors, Bitcoin allocation is relatively low and not a priority for liquidation. #Bitget Arriving means VIP! Crypto, US stocks, CFDs, global opportunities all in one place