Lei06

Wrote an article about ETH 10 hours ago. That article said: The long position ratio climbed from 71.89% to 76.15% over 6 hours; the more it fell, the more people bought, it was too crowded, so I opened a short position. Entry at $2,265, stop loss at $2,325, target at $2,180. Today, here’s an update on the progress. Current ETH price: $2,242.59 UTC open: $2,300.63, today UTC -2.52% 24h high: $2,322.60, 24h low: $2,233.62 Price has moved down from the entry at $2,265, target $2,180 not yet reached, stop loss $2,325 not triggered. The short position is still open. But the most noteworthy thing today isn’t how much the price moved. It’s the long position ratio over these 10 hours: 76.14% → 75.90% → 75.83% → 75.83% → 75.82% → 75.84% → 75.96% → 75.96% → 75.95% → 75.84% (latest) 10 hours. The long ratio dropped from 76.14% to a low of 75.82%, now at 75.84%. Almost no movement. Plainly put: 10 hours ago, out of 10 open accounts, 7.6 were long ETH. After 10 hours, ETH dropped nearly $60— still 7.58 out of 10 are long. They haven’t fled. This is very unusual. Normal logic: price falls, long stop losses get triggered, long ratio should decrease. But ETH fell from $2,300 to $2,242, and the long ratio barely moved—oscillating between 75.82% and 76.14%, with no sign of decline. What does this mean? Two possibilities: One, these longs have very deep stop losses; $2,242 hasn’t hit their stop loss level—they are holding on, waiting. Two, old longs’ stop losses were triggered, but new longs immediately came in to fill—every drop makes someone think "it’s cheap, let’s buy," keeping the long ratio steady. Either way, the result is the same: 75.84% longs have not started concentrated stop losses yet. Their stop loss orders remain below the price, untriggered. This is the key point. Now looking at Open Interest (OI): $5.086B → $5.078B → $5.094B → $5.064B → $5.079B → $5.084B → $5.101B → $5.098B → $5.067B → $5.043B (latest) Last 3 hours: $5.101B → $5.098B → $5.067B → $5.043B— OI is slowly decreasing, shrinking by $58M. Positions are slowly exiting, but not large-scale stop losses, rather small-scale gradual withdrawals. Funding rate: 0.0001, neutral—longs are so crowded, yet the funding rate remains neutral, indicating the market has no obvious "premium" on this direction; these longs are not paying high holding costs—they can hold for a long time. Putting today’s picture together with 10 hours ago: 10 hours ago: 76.15% longs, price $2,265, OI $5.1B, I opened a short. Now: 75.84% longs, price $2,242, OI $5.043B, short still running. Price dropped $23, OI slightly down, but long ratio unchanged. These longs haven’t started stop losses yet, meaning the real chain reaction hasn’t triggered. $2,233.62 is today’s low—if it breaks below here, that’s the starting point for 75.84% longs to begin concentrated stop losses. That will be the real acceleration phase for this short position. Stop loss at $2,325 held, waiting for $2,233 to break. $ETH

Today, BILL showed a very typical price movement. UTC opened at $0.1833, then steadily climbed to today's high of $0.2265—— an increase of +23.5%. Then it started to pull back. Currently: $0.1968, down -13% from the peak. UTC is still +7.36% today; the opening gains haven't been fully given back, but it has shrunk quite a bit from the highest point. Now, let's look at the data over the past 10 hours. Long position ratio movement: 50.45% → 50.45% → 51.25% → 51.25% → 51.67% → 51.67% → 52.27% → 52.27% → 53.73% → 54.61% (latest) 10 hours ago, longs and shorts were basically evenly split—50.45% longs, 49.55% shorts, almost no clear direction. 10 hours later: 54.61% longs. An increase of 4.16 percentage points in longs quietly entered during this period. Price fell from the $0.2265 high to $0.1968, but the long ratio actually rose—in plain terms: every time the price dropped a bit, some people thought "it's cheap enough, I'll enter." Bottom-fishing positions are coming in. Now look at the Open Interest (OI): $12.23M → $12.36M → $12.15M → $12.39M → $12.29M → $12.26M → $12.53M → $13.14M → $13.79M → $14.12M (latest) For the first 7 hours, OI fluctuated sideways between $12.15M and $12.53M, showing no clear direction. Then in the 8th hour: $12.53M → $13.14M, a jump of $610K. 9th hour: $13.14M → $13.79M, another jump of $650K. 10th hour: $13.79M → $14.12M, a further jump of $330K. In the last 3 hours, OI surged from $12.53M to $14.12M, an increase of $1.59M, or +12.7%. And the inflow accelerated—the 8th hour was the strongest, then continued. OI hit a new 10-hour high, coupled with the long ratio climbing from 50% to 54.6%—— indicating that the new positions entering are mainly long. The current picture is: BILL fell from the $0.2265 high back to $0.1968. But during this decline, longs are entering and OI is hitting new highs. Those buying from $0.2265 downward have an average cost roughly in the $0.20-$0.21 range—they are now slightly underwater or just around breakeven. Their logic is: it rose 23% today, pulled up to $0.2265, now $0.1968 is a retracement, a catch, waiting for the next move. But there is a problem here. The 24h low is $0.1656. If BILL falls below $0.19, these longs who entered around $0.20 will start to feel uncomfortable. If it falls below $0.185, near the UTC open price, they will start to cut losses. Their stop-losses will fuel the next leg down. Two possibilities: One: The bottom-fishers hold the line, $0.1968 is today's low zone, OI continues to flow in to support, and BILL pushes back up to $0.22-$0.23. Two: The bottom-fishers entered too early, no support near $0.20, stop-losses trigger on the break, retesting the $0.1656 low. OI accelerated inflow in the last 3 hours, longs climbed from 50% to 54.6%——BILL's fate today hinges on the $0.19 line. Holding it means bottom-fishers win; breaking it means they become fuel for the decline. $BILL

Opened a short position on ETH. The reason is just one number: In the past 6 hours, the trend of ETH long positions ratio — 71.89% → 71.89% → 74.36% → 74.36% → 75.85% → 76.15% (latest) In 6 hours, longs rose from 71.89% to 76.15%. Out of 10 opening accounts, 7.6 are going long on ETH. ETH current price $2,262, down -0.60% today UTC, still falling. Plainly put: the more it falls, the more people rush in to go long; the more it falls, the higher the long ratio. But the price isn’t rising, it’s falling. That’s the problem. 76% longs means 76% of people hold stop-loss orders — as soon as the price drops further, these stop-losses will trigger one after another, turning into sell orders pushing the price down. Funding rate: 0.0001, neutral — indicating more longs but not yet paying high fees, so there’s still room for further crowding. 24h low: $2,233.62. If it breaks below here, there’s a cluster of stop-losses from 76% longs below. I opened a short. Entry: $2,265 Stop-loss: $2,325 (above today’s high) Target: $2,180 → $2,100 Not because ETH’s fundamentals are bad. But because 76% are long, it’s too crowded — crowded directions often get hit first. Shorting 76% longs means shorting the most crowded consensus in this market. Opened, waiting for $2,233 to break. $ETH

BTC broke $80K tonight. Current price $79,073, UTC open $80,383, today UTC -1.63%. 24h low $79,063, defense line breached. Logically, after breaking it, you should short. But I looked at the short ratio over the past 6 hours: 58.54% → 58.55% → 57.38% → 55.92% → 54.71% → 51.85% (latest) In 6 hours, shorts compressed from 58.54% down to 51.85%. A drop of 6.7 percentage points. BTC is falling, but shorts are decreasing—not because shorts are being squeezed, but because shorts near $79K are actively taking profits. They got the direction right, took profits at this level, and exited. Then looking at OI: $8.499B → $8.427B → $8.348B → $8.276B → $8.288B → $8.222B (latest) In 6 hours, OI shrank from $8.499B to $8.222B, a reduction of $277M. Positions are being rapidly cleaned out; it’s not new shorts entering, but a large amount of positions exiting. Funding rate: 0.0001, almost zero—longs and shorts are evenly matched, no one is dominating. Putting these together, my judgment is: The $80K break was caused by shorts taking profits—not because BTC’s fundamentals collapsed, but because 58% of shorts reached their target here and started closing positions. After closing, shorts liquidated, OI shrank, and selling pressure below actually eased. Funding at 0.0001 indicates no crazy shorting atmosphere below. So I opened a long position. Entry: $79,000-$79,200 Stop loss: $77,500 (if broken effectively, structure is broken) Target 1: $81,280 (recover today’s high) Target 2: $83,000+ Not because $80K will definitely hold. But because 6.7 percentage points of shorts ran away below $79K, the remaining 51.85% of new shorts are the real stop-loss bombs. Shorts have finished taking profits; the remaining 51% are new entries—their stop losses are the fuel for my long. I opened it, with stop loss at $77,500. $BTC

Binance is giving out benefits, airdrop at 11 PM, no points deducted. But waking up the elderly at this hour isn't very nice, right!

Opened a long position on LAB. The reason is these two numbers: OI: $108.1 million. Since this series started tracking, OI has surpassed $100 million for the first time again. The last time OI went over $100 million, LAB was at $7.656. Short ratio: 65.01%. In the latest period, it surged by 2.92 percentage points — LAB rose 35% today, then a large group rushed in to short, betting it would fall. 65% of people are shorting LAB, with OI at $108.1 million. The last time this combination appeared, LAB reached $7.656. I don’t know if it will be the same this time. But I do know that this 65% short interest is the freshest fuel for LAB. Entry at $6.10, stop loss at $5.40, target $7.50+. Opened, waiting for the outcome.

Today I opened a long position on LAB. Let me explain why. Today LAB: $6.274, UTC open $4.618, up +35.85% today. 24h high: $6.414. I've been tracking LAB for a long time in this series—from a 72% extreme short, writing about the short squeeze at $7.656, the crash back to $4.60, the quiet climb back from $4.60 to $5.21, and now today's $6.274. I've been waiting for a reason to open a position. Today, two numbers aligned simultaneously. First: Open Interest (OI). The OI trend I've been following in this series, the latest two periods today are: $88.4 million → $104.5 million → $108.1 million (latest) $100 million has been broken through. The last time OI stood above $100 million, LAB was at $7.656. That was the most extreme short squeeze covered in this series. Now OI is $108.1 million, even higher than before that squeeze—just $1.7 million shy of the previous peak of $109.8 million. Second: Short ratio. Latest 10 periods data: 67.11% → 63.73% → 63.45% → 61.25% → 61.96% → 59.51% (series low) → 60.89% → 61.80% → 62.09% → 65.01% (latest) After the series low of 59.51%, shorts started to climb back. But the latest period today: 65.01%. From the previous 62.09%, it jumped 2.92 percentage points in one period. This is the largest single-period jump in short ratio since tracking this series. In plain terms: LAB rose to $6.27 today, up 35%—then a large group rushed in to short, thinking "this is too high, it should fall." This group heavily bet on LAB falling around $6.27. Then I remembered the last time. The last time OI stood above $100 million was before the short squeeze to $7.656. The last time the short ratio rebounded from the series low was before LAB's rally. I don't know if it will repeat today. What I do know is: when 65% of people are shorting LAB and OI is $108.1 million—both happening simultaneously—look what happened last time. So I opened a long position. Entry: $6.10 (after pullback confirmation) Stop loss: $5.40 (exit if broken effectively) First target: $7.00 Second target: $7.50-$7.65 (close to last short squeeze high) Position size is moderate, risk controlled. Latest Taker ratio: 0.987, buy and sell sides are basically even—indicating no clear direction now, waiting for a trigger. This trigger might be the moment when 65% shorts start to stop loss. I'm not sure if it will squeeze to $7.65 this time. But I know, 65% shorts are shorting above $6.27, and OI is $108.1 million—this is one of the most crowded short positions seen in this series, and it came in after LAB already rose 35% today. They are the freshest "chives" (new retail traders) and the most recent stop loss orders. I went long, stop loss at $5.40, target $7.50+. 65% shorts are my opponents and also my fuel. $LAB

Trump arrives in Beijing

This series has been writing about the same thing for the past few days: The spring is being compressed tighter and tighter. OI is higher day by day. The stakes are getting bigger day by day. $8.375 billion is a new high, $8.575 billion broke again. Today, let's write about a new development. First, BTC current price: $80,192. UTC open $80,879, today UTC -0.85%. 24h high $81,320, 24h low $79,842 — this low point has been tracked by this series for several days, it’s still there today, not broken yet. But BTC is moving toward it. $80,192, only $350 away from $79,842. Then today's key data — OI (Open Interest): The trend tracked since this series started is: $8.208B → $8.219B → $8.175B → $8.378B → $8.567B (series high) → $8.488B → $8.575B (new high again) → $8.541B → $8.427B → $8.348B (latest) From the $8.575B peak, it has fallen all the way back to $8.348B. Dropped by $227 million. Plainly speaking: In the past few days, it was always said "more and more money is flowing in to bet" — today, this trend stopped and is reversing. Some are withdrawing. Stakes are shrinking. Then the most unexpected number today — Short ratio latest 10 periods: 57.70% → 57.83% → 58.09% → 58.58% → 58.63% → 58.47% → 58.35% → 58.54% → 58.55% → 55.98% (latest) The first nine periods fluctuated steadily between 57%-58.6% — a very stable majority short pattern. Then the latest period: 55.98%. Within one period, it dropped directly from 58.55% to 55.98%. A 2.57 percentage point short position disappeared within one hour. This is the largest single-period drop in short ratio since this series started tracking. Plainly speaking: A large group of people betting on BTC to fall collectively closed their positions in the last hour. Now a very strange picture appears: Shorts withdrew, price should go up — short covering = buy orders = price push up. But BTC fell from $80,879 to $80,192, today UTC -0.85%. Shorts ran away, price still fell. What does this mean? It means when shorts withdrew, longs ran even faster. The short covering buy orders were overwhelmed by the longs’ sell orders. Both sides are withdrawing, but longs are retreating more fiercely. OI dropped by $227 million, which is the result of this process — it’s not that the spring was pushed open by one side, but both sides are loosening simultaneously. This is completely different from the picture described earlier in this series. Previously it was written: "Both sides are increasing bets, stakes are getting bigger, the spring is being compressed tighter." Today it’s: "Both sides are withdrawing, stakes are shrinking, the spring is loosening." There are two possibilities for the spring loosening: One: This is the last position cleanup before breaking below $80K — those who should run have run, the rest have true conviction — then $80K holds and bounces. The other: Both longs and shorts think $80K won’t hold and start running early — once $79,842 is effectively broken, remaining positions will accelerate fleeing, BTC will fall faster than anyone expects. $80,192, only $350 away from $79,842. The spring is loosening, not because someone won, but because both sides are withdrawing — the $80K battle tonight is the most critical moment. $BTC

The previous article about LAB ended with: "$4.60 to $5.21 is just the prologue, not the conclusion." Today, here’s the answer. LAB current price is $5.887, UTC open was $4.769, UTC price rose +23.44% today. 24h high: $6.057 — this is the second highest price point LAB has reached since this series started tracking, only behind the previous short squeeze at $7.656. Plainly put: from the last noted $5.21 to today’s $5.887, it quietly climbed another 13%. No big news, no violent pump, just steadily moving up. Now look at the short ratio tracked throughout this series: These 10 data points: 68.25% → 67.11% → 63.73% → 63.45% → 61.25% → 61.96% → 59.51% (series low) → 60.89% → 61.80% → 62.07% (latest) The series low is 59.51%. Notice after 59.51%, the short ratio has been creeping back up — 59.51%, 60.89%, 61.80%, 62.07%. From the low point to now, the short ratio rebounded by 2.56 percentage points. Plainly: the price is rising, but new shorts are coming in — some see LAB at $5.9 and think "this is too high, time to short," so they enter short positions. But the result for these new shorts today is: opened at $4.769, now $5.887, UTC +23.44% — they’re trapped. This is why it’s called "new fuel." Shorts entering are new stop-loss orders — if the price keeps rising, their stop losses become buy orders pushing the price up. Now look at the Open Interest (OI), the most explosive number today: Today’s 1-hour OI data trend: $80 million → $83.4 million → $86.7 million → $87.5 million → $89.8 million → $88.5 million → $88.4 million → $93.6 million → $96.8 million → $98.9 million (latest) From $80 million this morning, it steadily rose to $98.9 million now. Almost $100 million. The last time OI was above $100 million was during the short squeeze to $7.656 — then OI peaked at $109.8 million. Now OI surged from $80 million to $98.9 million in one day, an increase of $18.9 million, +23.6%. OI and price are rising together today — this shows it’s not old money rotating, but new money entering. Both longs and shorts have new funds coming in, but with price up +23.44%, the longs are stronger. Taker: In 10 periods, 8 were buyer-dominated, latest 1.0827, buyers have been consistently overpowering sellers recently. ──────────── Summarizing the whole series storyline: Chapter 1: 72.82% extreme shorts → short squeeze to $7.656 → crash back to $4.60 (OI $109.8 million) Chapter 2: 63.45% shorts → further compression to 59.51% series low → price quietly climbed from $4.60 back to $5.21 (OI low $78 million) Chapter 3 (today): new shorts push ratio from 59.51% back to 62.07% → price doesn’t fall but rises +23.44% to $5.887 → OI surged from $80 million to $98.9 million in one day, nearly back to $100 million All three chapters tell one story: Shorts keep cycling in, but LAB just won’t let them profit. Every time shorts think "this is the top," the price moves up another level. The $98.9 million OI is the second time this series has approached $100 million — last time near $100 million, LAB was at $7.656. Today at $5.887 with OI $98.9 million, if OI breaks $100 million, 62% shorts will start to feel the pressure. $6.057 is today’s high, $100 million OI is the next threshold — every batch of shorts entering is new fuel, 62% are still betting LAB will fall, but they haven’t won yet. $LAB