Lei06

Crypto Market Participants & Web3 Content Creators. Study on-chain data, track hot narratives, and make transactions that you can understand. I believe that good content requires patience just like good positions.

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This series has been tracking BTC volatility for many days. The logic I've been writing about is: $80K is the defense line, 62% shorts are the spring, and OI is the bet. Today, let's update these three numbers. First, the price: BTC is now $81,150, UTC open $80,502, UTC today +0.82%. 24h high $81,310, low $79,842 — still the same low as yesterday, not broken yet. $80K held, and today it has been moving up since the open, no longer testing $79,842. Then the shorts: The trend of the 10 data points in this series is: 58.03% → 61.59% → 62.18% (extreme top) → 60.98% → 60.01% → 57.81% → 57.18% → 56.89% (series low) → 57.22% → 57.83% (latest) 62.18% is the extreme value, the most crowded short moment in this series. Then shorts dropped to the series low of 56.89% — 5.3 percentage points of shorts closed during this period. But note the latest two points: 56.89% → 57.22% → 57.83%. Shorts are slightly rebounding from the series low. Plainly put: some shorts previously exited, but near $81K, new shorts have entered again — seeing this as a shorting opportunity. Nearly 58% of accounts are betting BTC will fall. Then OI: $7.981B → $8.218B → $8.213B → $8.211B → $8.207B → $8.179B → $8.375B → $8.566B → $8.488B → $8.575B (latest) When I wrote this series yesterday, OI $8.375B was a new high. Today latest: $8.575B. Another new high. From the first issue's $7.981B to today's $8.575B, OI increased by $0.594B. Price barely moved, but the bet increased by 6%. Then the most interesting change today — Taker latest: 1.2012. This is the highest number in the 10 issues of this series. Plainly: Taker 1.2012 means buyers are 20% more aggressive than sellers — the strongest buying in this period of volatility. Strongest buying, but price still at $81,150, no breakout yet. Then look at Fear & Greed: 42 (Fear). Last time I wrote here, Fear & Greed was 49 (Neutral), no particular sentiment. Today: 42, turned to Fear. The market is starting to get scared. But OI is at a new high, Taker is the series highest — some are scared, but some are buying aggressively at the same time. Putting these together: Price $81,150, inside the box. Shorts at 57.83%, after falling from the extreme value, have slightly rebounded, new shorts entered near $81K. OI $8.575B breaks series high, bets are still increasing. Taker 1.2012 series highest, buyers are the most aggressive in this period. Sentiment Fear 42, the public is starting to panic. All these happening simultaneously can only mean one thing: there are two groups in the market using more money to do completely opposite things — one group thinks $81K will crash, the other thinks $81K is an opportunity, both sides are increasing their bets, sentiment is turning fearful. The spring is being compressed tighter every day. Bets rose from $7.981B to $8.575B, up $0.594B — this money is staked around the same price, no one wins, no one loses, just wearing each other down. $8.575B is today's most important BTC number, not the price, but the bet. Bets hit a new high, but price is still at $81K — these two things cannot both hold true forever. $BTC

The previous article ended with a statement: "63% of shorts are still present; the series is not over yet." Today, let's update the progress. Latest short ratio over the last 10 periods: 72.80% → 68.25% → 67.11% → 63.73% → 63.45% → 61.25% → 61.96% → 59.51% → 60.89% → 61.80% (latest) 72.80% is the peak extreme since tracking this series. What happened after that peak has been written here — LAB was pumped to $7.656, then crashed back to $4.60, a short squeeze occurred, but $7.65 did not hold. However, the shorts did not disappear. 63.45%, 61.25%, 59.51% — The short ratio continued to decline. Today's latest: 61.80%. From 72.80% down to the low of 59.51%, a total of 13.3 percentage points of shorts have gradually closed positions during this period. In plain terms: when this series started tracking, out of 10 open accounts, 7.28 were shorting LAB. Now, 6.18 out of 10 are shorting. Shorts are still the majority but have shifted from "extremely crowded" to "highly crowded." Now looking at the price: What happened after LAB crashed back to $4.60 last time? Today's 24h low is $4.321, then it climbed up — 24h high $5.278, current price $5.206. UTC open was $4.886, now +6.55%. In plain terms: LAB quietly climbed back from the $4.60 ruins to $5.21. No visual shock like the previous $7.656, but it has steadily risen. Looking at OI: 10 periods data (converted to USD): $109.8M → $106.1M → $90.9M → $92.2M → $82.2M → $81.5M → $78.0M → $83.6M → $81.2M → $86.8M (latest) From the peak of $109.8M, it shrank to the lowest $78.0M, now rebounding to $86.8M. OI is slowly climbing back from the low — indicating new positions are gradually being rebuilt. Not a massive influx, but a cautious repositioning. Latest Taker is 1.0514, with 9 out of 10 periods showing buyers exceeding sellers — buying pressure is continuously supporting the price, not a flash in the pan. Putting today's data together with the last time, the picture is: Last time: 72.82% peak → short squeeze to $7.65 → crash back to $4.60 → 63.45% shorts "story not over" Today: 63.45% → further compressed to new low 59.51% → now 61.80% → price climbed from $4.60 back to $5.21 Short ratio dropped from 72.82% to 59.51%, a total drop of 13.3 percentage points. That last short squeeze knocked shorts from 72% down to 63% (9 points). Afterwards, no big drama, but shorts quietly dropped another 4 points to 59.51%. Then a slight rebound back to 61.8% — indicating new shorts entered around $5.20, seeing this as a shorting opportunity. Those who shorted at $5.20, along with those who shorted at $4.60 before, might be the next ones to get squeezed? 61.80% is still an extremely crowded short position. OI is rebuilding at a low level, Taker buyers continue to dominate. 13 points of shorts have exited, but nearly 62% remain. LAB quietly climbed from $4.60 to $5.21, shorts compressed from 72% to 61.8% — this is not the end, but the preparation stage for the next round. As long as 61.8% shorts remain, the story is not finished. $LAB

This series has written about UB twice before. The first time: UB had just broken through $0.10, using $0.10 as a springboard to jump higher. The second update: it rose to $0.1299. Today: $0.1719. From $0.10 to $0.1719, during the tracking period of this series, it increased by +71.9%. Today alone it rose by +15.17%. But the numbers are not the most interesting part today. What’s interesting is this: Contract long-short ratio data over 10 periods — 42.02% → 41.64% → 42.49% → 42.27% → 43.74% → 44.85% → 45.86% → 47.07% → 47.35% → 48.39% (latest) This is the long position ratio. From 42.02%, it climbed all the way to 48.39%. Looking at the short position ratio conversely: from 57.98%, it dropped all the way to 51.61%. Plainly put: 10 periods ago, nearly 6 out of 10 open positions were shorting UB. Now: 5.16 out of 10 are still shorting, but this number is shrinking every period. Shorts are still the majority, but their advantage is rapidly disappearing — shorts decrease every period, longs keep adding every period. Then look at OI (total contract positions, converted to USD): $13.66M → $14.88M → $13.45M → $12.68M → $13.78M → $14.58M → $15.50M → $14.67M → $14.76M → $15.37M (latest) The latest $15.37M is the high point in these 10 periods. Price is rising, OI is also rising — simply put: new money is coming in, not old money just rotating. If it were old money rotating, OI would fluctuate without rising; now OI hits new highs, indicating new money is betting on an upward move. Next, look at Taker (who is more active): In 8 out of 10 periods, buyers outnumber sellers; latest is 1.142 — buyers are 14% more active than sellers. On DEX in the last 24h today: 32,605 buy orders vs 29,860 sell orders, more buys than sells. On-chain and contract markets both say the same thing: buyers are pushing this price up, it’s not just the price rising on its own. Putting these together: Short ratio compressed from 58% to 51.6% — shorts are retreating. OI hits recent highs — new money is coming in. Taker buyers continue to dominate — buy orders are pushing. Price $0.1719, today +15.17% — here is the result. One question remains: shorts still hold 51.6%, about 5 out of 10 are shorting UB. If these people continue to retreat — pushing below 51.6% — that will be the fuel for the next rally. If the price meets resistance and falls back near $0.17, the 51.6% shorts will feel "I was right" and start adding positions, which would be a correction. UB today $0.1719, $0.10 was the starting point, $0.1299 was the previous step, $0.1719 is today’s new high — shorts have shrunk from 58% to 51.6%, not finished yet, the story is not over. $UB

SUI was discussed here two days ago. The conclusion of that article was: the price rose by 25%, but 67% of the longs were shaken off at the top. Today is the sequel. After being shaken off, a new batch of longs started entering the market. Look at the long ratio tracked in this series, 10 data points: 57.56% → 59.21% → 62.21% → 63.50% → 64.13% → 63.64% → 62.54% → 63.59% → 63.15% → 62.55% (latest) Climbing steadily from 57.56% up to 64.13%, now at 62.55%. What are these people doing? They are catching SUI. Catching it all the way down—every time SUI drops a bit, someone thinks "it's cheap enough, time to buy," and then they enter. The problem is: SUI current price is $1.2264. UTC open was $1.291, today UTC dropped -4.97%. 24h high $1.3284, 24h low $1.2139. Longs are continuously adding positions, but the price keeps falling. Plainly put: they caught it, but caught it on the downhill. What is this called? Catching the bottom halfway up the mountain. You think $1.28 is cheap, but there are still sellers at $1.25. You think $1.25 is the bottom, but $1.22 appears again. Look at the OI (open interest): $154.6M → $148.0M → $142.8M → $137.8M → $139.6M → $135.6M → $134.9M → $133.5M → $130.0M → $130.2M (latest) OI shrank from $154.6M to $130.2M—a reduction of $24.4M in positions. Long ratio is rising, but total positions are shrinking—this indicates two things happening simultaneously: 1. Some are stopping losses and exiting (positions decreasing); 2. The new longs entering have smaller positions than the shorts exiting. The combined result of these two is: more people are bullish, but each is betting less—market is "cautiously long," not "confidently long." SUI has experienced two phases in the past two days: Phase one (the day before yesterday): $1.135 → $1.4139, up 25%, old longs sold at the top, pushing the long ratio from 67% down to 57%. Phase two (now): new longs started catching from 57.56%, climbing to 62.55%, but price fell from $1.3284 back to $1.2264—caught all the way down, price dropped all the way down. Today's 24h low is $1.2139. This is SUI's last line of defense now. If $1.2139 holds, the stop losses of the 62% longs haven't triggered yet. If $1.2139 breaks, these longs who have been adding from 57% will start lining up to stop loss. Their stop losses will fuel the next accelerated drop. SUI's current structure: 62% longs are trapped on the downtrend, $1.2139 is today's critical point. Holding it means digestion, breaking it means a stop loss chain. $SUI