Henry科崽

It's not that the Federal Reserve has actually raised interest rates, but the bond market has "preemptively helped the Fed raise rates". #美CPI+PPI双超预期：通胀压力升级 U.S. Treasury yields are rising across the board, indicating the market is repricing: inflation may not be contained, rate cuts might be delayed, and even a rate hike cannot be ruled out. This is more significant than simply "bonds falling" because U.S. Treasury yields are the anchor for global asset pricing. Impact on the crypto space: short-term bearish, especially bearish for altcoins and Meme. What the crypto world fears most is not just "high interest rates," but this combination of factors⬇️ Rising U.S. Treasury yields + stronger dollar + declining rate cut expectations + leveraged funds withdrawing.

Market Analysis: $BTC (2026-5-15) Yesterday's analysis mentioned that there is support around 785 below, and the rebound is a shorting opportunity. Structurally, as long as the rebound does not break a new high, it will continue to be suppressed. No matter how strong the rise is, maintain a short bias! It's a very simple logic. I short not because I think it won't rise anymore, but because I believe the bottom at 59000 is definitely not the bottom of this bear market‼️ This is the core logic, so I am willing to take medium to long-term short positions. The rise is just a rebound with demand during consolidation, while the decline is the "main upward wave." Those who want to short can do so near the current position, with a stop loss if a new high is broken, then look for another shorting opportunity above.

Market Analysis: $BTC (2026-5-14) The daily chart shows a smooth decline, funding rates have returned to positive, and longs are continuously increasing during the pullback (which is a good sign). Currently, longs are paying funding fees to shorts. From a technical perspective, 78,300 is the first support level in this round of decline, and around 75,000 is the last support for this rebound. A break below 75,000 would mark the true start of a downtrend. Right now, it is in a pullback phase~ The opportunity for a short position is just above the 78,300 rebound, with a stop loss placed near the previous high (around 82,400).

Market Analysis: $BTC (2026-5-13) #美国4月CPI今晚20:30揭晓 Last night, the key CPI data was bearish for US stocks and cryptocurrencies, causing BTC to continue its decline. At this point, I assume we are already at a top formation. The first spike was to absorb liquidity, and the second failed attempt to reach a new high was to trap the bulls. We are now seeing a daily-level rebound, with the first failure to break the previous high. This position requires a major pullback. The 75 level below is a very strong support; if 75 breaks, the real downward correction will begin 📉. Current strategy: firmly holding short positions, trading with the trend!

Freshly released CPI data interpretation, higher than the expected 0.4%. The Federal Reserve remains hawkish, and the three major US stock index futures continue to decline after the CPI data release 📉 The two-year US Treasury yield is currently up 4.4 basis points, now at 3.991%. High inflation continues to impact the global economy, which is not good news for both the US stock market and the crypto space‼️

What really matters tonight is not the CPI news itself, but how the market views the possibility of "future rate cuts" after this data is released‼️ #美国4月CPI今晚20:30揭晓 Here are three scenarios📖 for your reference, so you can react immediately when the news comes out⬇️ 1️⃣ CPI below expectations (3.7%) The market will believe inflation is still under control, so US stocks, Bitcoin, and gold will all rise📈, while the dollar and US Treasury yields will fall📉. 2️⃣ CPI meets expectations (most likely event) The market will return to a range-bound state, with US stocks continuing to advance📈 led by the AI wave, and Bitcoin consolidating at high levels. 3️⃣ CPI above expectations (extremely dangerous signal) The Fed will be extremely hawkish, the market will believe there is no chance of rate cuts this year, possibly evolving into "prolonged high interest rates," causing US stocks and Bitcoin to plummet📉, gold uncertain, and the dollar plus US Treasury yields to rise📈.

Market Analysis: $BTC (2026-5-12) Short positions can start being prepared, a major crash is imminent📉 The number of long positions keeps increasing, funding rates are rising, and a bearish divergence has appeared in the structure. I no longer expect a sharp spike upwards; I can't predict the top, so I can only make a trading plan based on the market. The best plan right now is to enter short positions early as the first batch, then wait for the market's reaction. If you enter short positions, it's recommended to focus only on the daily candlestick chart, no need to panic~ Tested and effective ❤️

Market Analysis: $BTC (2026-5-11) Bitcoin's current trend doesn't look like it's going to drop at all; it's consolidating at a high level, and capital inflow is still increasing. In the short term, it will most likely move upward, with a target around 86000. Short-term positions can go long, with stop-loss set at the previous low each time to prevent being stopped out by a sudden spike. 86000 is also the first target for short positions, the entry point for the initial short position. For the rest, take it step by step, as there are many events happening this week that could cause significant market volatility 📈📉

Don't just focus on the K-line next week‼️ What really determines the direction of BTC, US stocks, and crude oil might be these few things⬇️ CPI, Strait of Hormuz, AI earnings reports — the global capital battle is about to begin

Market Analysis: $BTC (2026-5-9) Lately, I've only been looking at daily and higher time frame candlestick charts, so don't try to catch long opportunities on lower time frames～ For those shorting with me above, place your stop loss just above the previous wick tip. If it breaks through, wait for a higher level to go short. If it doesn't break, you can add to your short position, continuing the rolling strategy. You just need to find a suitable high point and slowly add positions, ensuring no liquidation risk. The position to add to shorts above is around 80900, but first, we need to observe the actual situation of this small rebound.