Lei06
Lei06
Crypto Market Participants & Web3 Content Creators. Study on-chain data, track hot narratives, and make transactions that you can understand. I believe that good content requires patience just like good positions.
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Every article is saying the same thing: the spring is being compressed, OI is hitting new highs, both sides are adding bets, but the price hasn't moved.
Some say $80K won't hold.
Some say the spring will bounce down.
In the early hours today, BTC broke through $82,000.
The spring bounced up.
I don't want to say "I told you so" here.
Because honestly, I didn't know it would definitely bounce up—I only knew the pressure was increasing, both sides were adding bets, and eventually one side had to win.
Today, the longs won.
Those longs holding near $80K without running away got freed today.
Those new shorts entering near $81K—got trapped.
This is how the spring bounces open: no news, no announcements, just a moment when short sellers' stop losses start triggering one after another, pushing the price up until the next batch of shorts come in to bet on a drop again.
$82,000 is a number, but what it really means is:
All the longs holding on during this period are smiling today.
I don't know what happens next.
But the first bounce of the spring usually isn't the last bounce. $BTC
【$244 million in total contract liquidations across the entire network in the past 24 hours, mainly long positions】
On May 14, CoinAnk data showed that in the past 24 hours, the total contract liquidations in the cryptocurrency market reached $244 million, with $161 million in long position liquidations and $83.706 million in short position liquidations. The total liquidation amount for BTC was $81.8259 million, and for ETH it was $48.9829 million.
JPMorgan significantly increased its Bitcoin ETF holdings in Q1, with BlackRock's IBIT holdings growing by approximately $162 million
On May 14, JPMorgan disclosed a substantial increase in its Bitcoin ETF holdings in the first quarter of 2026. The 13F filing shows that its holdings in BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF IBIT grew by 174%, rising from about 3 million shares to 8.3 million shares, adding approximately $162 million in value. Despite Bitcoin prices dropping over 22% in Q1 and overall net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, JPMorgan actively expanded its Bitcoin ETF exposure.
In addition to IBIT, JPMorgan also significantly increased its holdings in Fidelity's FBTC by 450%, Bitwise's BITB by nearly 900%, and boosted its Bitcoin futures ETF BITO exposure by over 3000%. Regarding altcoins, JPMorgan made its first purchase of the Solana staking ETF (BSOL), increased Ethereum ETF exposure, but completely exited XRP ETF holdings. It also rotated its crypto-related stocks by reducing Coinbase and increasing positions in mining and payment stocks such as MARA and Core Scientific. $BTC
If Laote hasn't left, Putin is coming. Such a dense visit to China?
On May 14, according to Global Times citing TASS and Reuters, Kremlin spokesperson Peskov stated at a press conference on the 14th that Russian President Putin is about to visit China,
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and the related preparations are ready.
According to reports, when asked if the date of Putin's visit to China has been confirmed, Peskov responded, "We will announce the specific date soon. The visit is being prepared.
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It can be said that all preparations, including the final touches, have been completed. The visit will take place very soon."
Opened a long position on BILL.
The reason is not the price, but the OI.
BILL current price $0.1910, basically flat today in UTC at -0.13%. 24h high $0.1995, 24h low $0.1600.
Price is at $0.191, 5% below the high of $0.1995, and has climbed back nearly 20% from the low of $0.160.
Now looking at today's 10-hour OI movement:
$13.37M → $13.20M → $13.35M → $13.55M → $13.71M → $13.93M → $14.59M → $14.78M → $15.33M → $15.56M (latest)
10 hours ago: $13.37M.
Now: $15.56M.
Increased by $2.19M, +16.4%.
And it’s a one-sided upward trend with no pullbacks—accelerating since 14:00, last 3 hours $13.93M → $14.59M → $15.33M → $15.56M, hitting new highs every hour.
Price hasn’t moved much, but OI keeps rising.
In plain terms: more and more money is entering to bet on BILL—but both sides are betting, so the price hasn’t moved yet. The spring is being compressed.
Now looking at the long ratio:
53.62% → 51.63% → 51.63% → 51.79% → 51.79% → 50.24% → 50.24% → 51.06% → 51.06% → 50.55% (latest)
10 hours ago: 53.62% longs, 46.38% shorts.
Now: 50.55% longs, 49.45% shorts.
Compressed from 53% down to 50.5%—longs have been pushed from "slightly dominant" to "basically even".
This is not a collapse of longs, but a more balanced position between both sides—both longs and shorts are betting, no side clearly dominant.
Latest Taker: 0.980, slightly seller-dominant.
Putting these together, my logic is:
OI up 16.4% in 10 hours, one-sided upward, building positions all day.
Long ratio compressed from 53% to 50.5%, indicating new positions on both sides, no overcrowding.
Price rebounded from today’s low $0.160 to $0.191, structurally moving upward.
A 50/50 long-short structure means: once one side starts to clear out, without large opposing positions to absorb it—it will accelerate.
I choose long because: $0.160 low has support, OI is building, price is climbing, directionally favorable.
Entry: $0.190
Stop loss: $0.175 (breaks today’s low area structure)
Target 1: $0.200 (today’s high)
Target 2: $0.230-$0.240 (OI continues to pour in accelerating phase)
OI $15.56M is today’s 10-hour new high and still rising—the spring is still compressed, I went long, waiting for it to bounce. $BILL
This series has already covered ETH twice.
First article: The long position ratio climbed from 71.89% to 76.15%. The more it fell, the more they bought. I opened a short position at $2,265, with a stop loss at $2,325 and a target of $2,180.
Second article: ETH dropped to $2,242, and the long ratio remained unchanged for 10 hours—76% of people were holding on, their stop losses hadn’t triggered yet, saying that only breaking below $2,233 would be the start of a chain reaction.
Today is the third article.
ETH current price $2,253, UTC open $2,301, today UTC -2.09%. 24h high $2,306.6, 24h low $2,233.62.
Short position is open, entry at $2,265, now $2,253, direction is correct, target $2,180 not reached yet.
Now the key data for today.
Long ratio trend over the past 10 hours:
75.95% → 75.74% → 75.74% → 75.96% → 75.70% → 75.70% → 74.76% → 74.56% → 74.54% → 74.26% (latest)
It was 76.15% when the first article was written.
It was 75.84% in the last article, unchanged for 10 hours.
Today: 74.26%.
The long ratio has finally started to decline.
From the peak of 76.15% to today’s 74.26%, it dropped by 1.89 percentage points.
In plain terms: nearly 2% of the longs have gradually closed their positions or been stopped out during this period.
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But note: 74.26% is still an extremely crowded long position.
Out of 10 open accounts, 7.43 are still long ETH.
Some have exited, but most are still holding.
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Looking at OI, it has been steadily declining over these 10 hours:
$5.067B → $5.046B → $5.081B → $5.065B → $5.048B → $5.041B → $5.028B → $5.020B → $5.011B → $4.996B (latest)
OI dropped from $5.067B to $4.996B in 10 hours, shrinking by $0.071B.
And it’s a continuous one-sided decline, with only a slight rebound at 12:00, then immediately continuing downward.
OI shrinking + long ratio slowly declining + price falling—
All three happening simultaneously indicates it’s not new shorts entering, but longs gradually exiting.
They are not hitting stop losses all at once, but reducing positions bit by bit.
Funding rate: 0.0001, still neutral.
This is a key number tracked throughout this series—neutral funding rate means the cost of holding long positions is very low, so they can keep holding without being forced out by "funding fees."
This explains why the long ratio took nearly two days to drop from 76.15% to 74.26%: they weren’t forced out by costs, but slowly worn down by price.
Current situation:
From the moment the short was opened until today, ETH fell from $2,265 to $2,253, target $2,180, stop loss $2,325.
Long ratio ground down from 76.15% to 74.26%, nearly 2 points lost, but still at 74%.
OI shrinks one-sidedly, slowly bleeding out.
24h low $2,233.62 is the most critical line in this move—it hasn’t been broken yet.
This move is a "slow grind" structure. Not a violent crash, but gradually grinding down longs. From 76% to 74%, nearly 2 points lost, but still 74% remain. When they grind down to a certain critical point, or $2,233 breaks triggering concentrated stop losses, that will be the phase where shorts accelerate.
Not there yet.
Stop loss at $2,325 is holding, waiting for that line. $ETH
