"Trump says success, Iran says deadlock, who is lying?" The core sticking point in the US-Iran negotiations has emerged: the unfreezing of $24 billion. Trump publicly stated: "Great success has been achieved," even claiming that Iran no longer has the conditions to possess nuclear weapons. But Iran's Supreme Leader's advisor Rezaei directly contradicted this: the negotiations are deadlocked, and the ball is on Trump's side. Iran's conditions are very clear: first unfreeze $12 billion as a trust test, then release another $12 billion later. And Trump? On one hand, he says he won't accept a "bad deal," on the other, he refuses to budge. Domestic pressure is also squeezing from both sides. Democrats attack him over high oil prices, while Republican hawks say compromise equals surrender. The House of Representatives even historically passed a resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire. Trump's room for compromise is almost zero. Without unfreezing the $24 billion, Hormuz will not loosen. Oil prices won't come down, and expectations for interest rate hikes won't ease. No matter how well Trump talks, this deadlock won't be resolved in the short term. #美伊谈判：解冻$240亿成关键

"Don't blame Rubin, the real culprit is the non-farm payrolls" NVIDIA dropped 6.2%, and the chip sector collapsed. The market blamed Rubin for the cutback, but the fault lies elsewhere. Non-farm payrolls came in at 172,000, double the expectation. The probability of a rate hike jumped from 40% to 70%, and that is the real executioner. Rubin's cutback is due to supply chain shortages, not a decline in AI demand. Patel personally clarified: SOCAMM is a slot-in type and can be upgraded to higher specs in a few days. Jensen Huang also said, "We will be using a large amount of HBM." The market only looked at the headline, not the original text. High-valuation chip stocks are the most vulnerable in the face of rate hike expectations. Rubin is just an excuse; the non-farm payrolls are the real reason. The next earnings report will prove this point. But the shadow of rate hikes will linger until employment truly cools down. #英伟达利空落地 $NVDA

"If S&P doesn't step in, can retail investors support SpaceX?" S&P refuses to make an exception—SpaceX can only be included in the index at least one year after going public. This means the core passive buying won't arrive in the short term, and there is no backstop buyer. Fidelity has slashed the subscription threshold from $500,000 to $2,000, and SpaceX has reserved 30% of shares for retail investors, breaking industry norms. Oversubscribed by 2 times, with $150 billion chasing shares. But the problem is, JPMorgan data shows about 86% of retail investors tend to chase highs and sell lows. How many of these are short-term IPO arbitrageurs, and how many are long-term holders? The prospectus has added a warning: large-scale retail participation may trigger severe short-term volatility. Oversubscription reflects emotional hype; continuous buying after listing is the real passing mark. Without index fund support, can retail investors catch this relay baton? The answer will be clear at the opening on June 12. #SpaceX上市超募：散户门槛降至$2000 $SPCX

"$1.1 billion unrealized gains hanging overhead, where is HYPE's biggest risk?" $HYPE just hit a new high of $75, then pulled back with the broader market. But what really unsettles the bulls is that large on-chain wallet—Hyperliquid Strategies, holding 23.7 million HYPE with unrealized gains exceeding $1.1 billion. When the market is good, it’s a solid floor; when the market turns bad, it’s a ticking bomb. Active profit-taking: locking in $1.1 billion gains, once it sells off, the market won’t be able to absorb the supply. Passive reduction: if the market worsens, staking rates become critical, and those unrealized gains turn into fuel accelerating the decline. This position is public. Everyone knows there’s $1.1 billion in profits sitting there, and everyone knows the market can’t handle it if it decides to exit. This “open secret” itself suppresses buying pressure—who wants to push the price up only to have others catch the fall? HYPE’s fundamentals aren’t bad, but when liquidity tightens, price is determined not by value but by who holds the heavier chips. This position is currently the biggest tail risk. #HYPE历史新高后随大盘回调

"RSI has bottomed out, liquidations haven't stopped, do you dare to move now?" $ETH daily RSI dropped to 13.29, the lowest in history, even lower than the chain liquidation spree in 2022. $BTC also reached 15.41, second only to 2018. In the past 24 hours, $1.8 billion worth of liquidations occurred across the network, 340,000 people were wiped out, with longs accounting for 80%. Large long liquidations are not over yet. Several whales have liquidation prices pinned at $1472 and $1452, still hanging. Has on-chain clearing happened? No. Funding rates have turned negative, but prices still can't withstand heavy sell-offs. Extreme overselling is a necessary condition for a rebound, not a sufficient one. The real long signal: large liquidations have paused, negative funding rates stabilize, and prices no longer crash easily. Bottom-fishing now will most likely die on the eve of the rebound. Waiting is harder than acting. #BTC与ETH极端超卖，链上清算加速

"Audits can't save ZEC; structural flaws are unfixable" Zcash today announced the Orchard supply audit. The vulnerability has been fixed, but the core issue remains unresolved: the privacy feature means the system can never prove "it hasn't been exploited in the past four years." This is not a technical detail; it's a deadlock in the underlying structure. No matter how new the audit method is, it can't bypass the "unfalsifiability" wall. The official admits there is no definitive way to prove the vulnerability was never exploited. They plan to introduce a new pool and add a revolving door accounting system—these solutions exist, but they are for the future. Does the market believe it? The $ZEC 40% crash has already answered that. Once trust cracks, a single report can't fix it. Today's outcome: the vulnerability is confirmed fixed, but doubts remain forever. For privacy coins, the sharpest selling point is also the most fragile Achilles' heel. This lesson will take the industry a long time to digest. #ZEC：官方今日公布Orchard供应审计

"172K Nonfarm Payrolls Shock, BTC Dragged into the Interest Rate Hike Shadow" Expected 85K, actual 172K, more than double. The March and April data were revised upward by a total of 93K, bringing the three-month average back to normal. This is not a "positive" sign, but an astonishingly strong labor market. Once the data was released, CME interest rate futures showed the probability of a rate hike this year soaring from 41% to 70%, with the July hike probability also jumping. The Fed has shifted from "possibly taking action" to "ready to act at any time." Gold is the most sensitive thermometer—spot gold plummeted 3.25% to $4328, wiping out almost all gains for the year. Even hard currency is being sold off, indicating the market is seriously pricing in a "real rate hike." $BTC crashed in sync, breaking through the $62,000 support line, continuously dragging down other assets like Ethereum, with $ETH approaching the $1,641 liquidation line. The logic is straightforward: too strong employment → rising rate hike expectations → collective shrinkage of risk assets. The question now is: will rate hike expectations continue to ferment? The only focus in the next two weeks is the FOMC meeting on June 16-17. The signals from the dot plot will determine how long BTC will remain under the shadow of rate hikes. Direction-wise, this hanging sword cannot be moved for now. There’s not much to do next except wait. #非农数据公布：就业人口17.2万人，远超预期

$BABY takes off on the spot, with a single bullish candle gaining 85%. Listing is like a strong medicine; once the Korean major exchange's KRW trading market opened, liquidity poured in directly. The price soared from 0.0118 all the way to 0.024, with trading volume exploding to over 4 million dollars, and the MACD golden cross shining brightly. But anything that rises too fast tends to get hot to handle. The short-term RSI has already burned up to 94—not just hot, it's about to start smoking. What's more troubling is the thin liquidity; some reported that stop-loss orders weren't executed, prices were pumped up and then instantly smashed back down—a typical big player playing games with you. There's also a ticking time bomb on the calendar: on June 10th, 237 million tokens are scheduled to unlock. When the supply increases then, profit-taking holders will take the opportunity to exit, and the scene won't look pretty. So for this surge, those who took profits should fasten their seatbelts, and those who haven't gotten on board yet shouldn't be fooled by the 85% figure. Things that rise sharply never fall gently. It's better to wait for the chips to settle before making a move. #波动雷达：币种异动观察

"Maji's ETH is about to be liquidated again" Just as BTC broke 62,000 at night and people hadn't recovered, $ETH plunged to 1655 USD, approaching Maji's big brother's liquidation line at 1641.87 USD. He had to passively reduce his position again. A year ago, Maji was an NFT legend with over 100 million in funds, but now his account only has 2.15 million USD left. This is not the first time; the cycle of "liquidation - adding positions - liquidation again - adding positions again" has almost become the main trading theme for him in the first half of the year. On June 5th, he deposited another 250,000 USDC as margin, with total losses accumulating to 78.35 million USD since last September. On the Hyperliquid platform, the largest ETH long position opened 120,000 contracts at an average price of 2261 USD, currently floating losses have expanded to 73.66 million USD. Within 24 hours, the entire network liquidated over 1.11 billion USD, of which long positions accounted for 830 million. The bulls are continuously being drained. This chain liquidation shows no end for now. Retail investors should never be cannon fodder guessing the bottom as longs; retail margin is not as thick as Maji's. #星球日报

"Marvell up 30%, Micron down 8%, AI hardware begins to split" Marvell has risen over 50% in five days, Micron dropped 7.7% in one day, and Hynix fell 8.3%. Capital is making completely opposite choices within the same sector. The trigger was a SemiAnalysis report claiming Nvidia's Rubin memory was cut back, causing the market to jump to "storage demand has peaked." But the author Patel himself clarified: the headline was exaggerated; the reason is a severe shortage of high-density LPDDR5X modules, not a demand decline. GPU-side HBM4 configurations remain unchanged. Morgan Stanley doubled Micron's target price from $520 to $1050 on the day of the plunge, maintaining an overweight rating. Marvell is focused on AI connectivity + custom chip logic, with Jensen Huang personally endorsing it as "the next trillion-dollar company." Storage was mistakenly hit by the cutback rumors. This divergence is not a temporary mispricing but an early signal of AI hardware valuation logic being repriced. The bottleneck is spreading from computing power to both storage and interconnects. The capital split is just beginning. #英伟达减配内存：美光海力士两连跌 $NVDA $MU